Boris Johnson faces ‘80% chance of leadership challenge’ after by-elections

Boris Johnson faces an ’80 per cent chance of a leadership challenge’ after two knife-edge by-elections this month – one in Wakefield, and a second in Tiverton and Honiton.

‘It’s 55 per cent that it happens on Monday or Tuesday. It’s 80 per cent there’s a vote after the two by-elections,’ a former cabinet minister told The Sunday Times. 

A crunch vote on Mr Johnson’s premiership is looming as new polling predicted the Conservatives risk being pummelled in one of the key electoral contests.

A survey of voters in Wakefield, who will go to the polls on June 23 to elect a new MP, has suggested the Tories could lose the by-election by as much as 20 points in an indication the revelations about Downing Street lockdown-busting gatherings have hit the party’s popularity in a battleground seat.

The Prime Minister secured his landslide 2019 majority off the back of scalps in the so-called Red Wall, with traditional Labour-supporting areas in the North of England, the Midlands and Wales switching their support to the Tories.

Boris Johnson faces an ’80 per cent chance of a leadership challenge’ after two knife-edge by-elections this month – one in Wakefield, and a second in Tiverton and Honiton

A survey of voters in Wakefield, who will go to the polls on June 23 to elect a new MP, has suggested the Tories could lose the by-election by as much as 20 points in an indication the revelations about Downing Street lockdown-busting gatherings have hit the party’s popularity in a battleground seat. (Above, Simon Lightwood, Labour’s candidate for the Wakefield by-election with Shadow Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary Lisa Nandy, second left, at Ossett Cricket and Athletic Club in Wakefield)

But the Wakefield constituency polling by JL Partners and reported in The Sunday Times is likely to make for anxious reading for Tory campaigners, with the company putting Labour on 48 points compared with 28 points for Mr Johnson’s outfit – a 19 point slip on the winning Tory performance two-and-a-half years ago.

It comes as Boris Johnson has promised to campaign in the two by-elections to avoid a leadership coup. 

His move marks a break with tradition as prime ministers do not usually take to the stump in by-elections.

Mr Johnson will visit the seats to convince voters he still has what it takes to lead the country, The Sun reported.

The poll findings come amid reports the threshold for a no-confidence vote might have been reached, with suggestions a leadership test could be coming as soon as Wednesday.

Tory MPs plotting against Boris Johnson have been accused of being ‘irresponsible beyond belief’ for threatening a ‘vote strike’ unless the Prime Minister quits.

Rebels are threatening to obstruct key parliamentary votes even if Mr Johnson survives a no-confidence ballot, amid growing expectations that he will be forced to face this as early as this week.

Rebels claim that Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, has now received more than 54 letters from Tory MPs demanding a ballot – the number required to trigger one. And some are speculating the number may be as high as 67.

Rebels claim that Sir Graham Brady (above), chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, has now received more than 54 letters from Tory MPs demanding a ballot – the number required to trigger one. And some are speculating the number may be as high as 67

A vote this week on his future as Britain’s Prime Minister would cap a bruising few days for Mr Johnson, who on Friday was booed upon his arrival, alongside his wife Carrie, for a service at St Paul’s Cathedral (above) to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Queen’s reign

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Under party rules, Sir Graham will first inform Mr Johnson before publicly announcing the vote, which could be held as soon as Wednesday.

Mr Johnson is widely expected to survive a ballot – not least because 180 Tory MPs, half the parliamentary party, would have to register no confidence to force him out.

But last night, Tory rebels were warning that anything other than a convincing win could leave them no option but to refuse to vote on Government legislation until the PM quits.

One rebel MP said the plotters hoped for a ‘game plan’ that would see the Prime Minister do worse than Theresa May in 2018. She won 63 per cent of a no-confidence vote over her Brexit deal. Badly wounded, she resigned a few months later.

Last night Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries branded the plotters ‘irreconcilable malcontents’ bent on ‘ditching the most electorally successful Conservative leader in decades’.

Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith described the vote-strike tactics ‘as irresponsible beyond belief’ and said that such ‘pathetic, childish’ behaviour would be an ‘act of war’. 

He added: ‘If this does take place, the whip would have to be withdrawn immediately and their constituency asked to start deselection procedures. If you don’t accept a majority vote, you are not fit to be in Parliament.’

Last night Johnson loyalists launched a series of stinging attacks on the plotters. One senior Tory called Newcastle-upon-Lyme MP Aaron Bell (right), an outspoken critic of Mr Johnson, a ‘loud-mouthed turncoat’. Another Johnson supporter attacked Elliot Colburn (left), who won Carshalton and Wallington from the Liberal Democrats in 2019 and has submitted a letter of no confidence

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Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith described the vote-strike tactics ‘as irresponsible beyond belief’ and said that such ‘pathetic, childish’ behaviour would be an ‘act of war’

Ms Dorries also sought to dampen Tory concerns about the Prime Minister being booed as he entered and left the Queen’s Jubilee thanksgiving service on Friday. She tweeted: ‘There were far, far more cheers, but that doesn’t make a good headline, does it.’

Her intervention came after some loyalists privately asked if the crowd’s reaction meant Mr Johnson had become a ‘liability’.

Last night Johnson loyalists launched a series of stinging attacks on the plotters.

One senior Tory called Newcastle-upon-Lyme MP Aaron Bell, an outspoken critic of Mr Johnson, a ‘loud-mouthed turncoat’.

Another Johnson supporter attacked Elliot Colburn, who won Carshalton and Wallington from the Liberal Democrats in 2019 and has submitted a letter of no confidence. Mr Colburn, the supporter said, ‘wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris.’

A vote this week on his future as Britain’s Prime Minister would cap a bruising few days for Mr Johnson, who on Friday was booed upon his arrival, alongside his wife Carrie, for a service at St Paul’s Cathedral to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Queen’s reign.

Comedian Lee Mack also made a joke about partygate at the Platinum Party at the Palace concert on Saturday evening, with the Prime Minister watching on from the royal box at the time.