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Despondent Red Wall Tory MPs are calling it ‘The Southern Comfort’ strategy. ‘Rishi Sunak‘s giving up on us,’ one told me despairingly. ‘He’s decided the priority is protecting our traditional base and seats. They’re adopting a form of managed decline. They’re going to abandon a swathe of the Northern seats we won in 2019 and try to shore things up in the South.’
Another northern backbencher tried to be more upbeat, but failed. ‘I can still see a way forward for the party,’ he said, ‘but part of it has to be winning in the North. This is the key battleground. Nothing Starmer’s offering is going to give people in my area a concrete reason to run back to Labour. But Rishi needs to give people a reason to stick with us – and at the moment he’s not doing that.’
The belief Sunak has abandoned any hope of saving the Red Wall seats secured by Boris Johnson‘s dramatic 2019 foray into Labour’s heartlands is based on a number of factors. The first is the sudden reversal of his pledge to appoint a Minister for the North.
Sunak promised the backbench Tory Northern Research Group (NRG) he would create the post. But in his recent ministerial reshuffle – one in which he focused on tinkering with the Business Department and establishing a dedicated Cabinet Minister for science – the PM reneged on the commitment.
Despondent Red Wall Tory MPs are calling it ‘The Southern Comfort’ strategy. ‘Rishi Sunak’s giving up on us,’ one told me despairingly
Added to this disillusionment is the way Sunak has managed – or mismanaged – the allocation of the precious Levelling Up Fund. Dozens of Northern Tory backbenchers were furious as it became apparent their promised allocation of cash wouldn’t be forthcoming
Members of the NRG were told this was because Sunak had decided it wouldn’t fit with the Government’s electoral strategy to be seen to be prioritising one region. An excuse that was immediately exposed when it emerged Sunak had appointed East London MP Julia Lopez as his Ministerial Champion for the Thames Estuary.
As one NRG member said: ‘There’s already a Minister for London, and now a Minister for the Thames Estuary. But we’re not allowed a Minister for the whole of the North. What sort of signal does that send?’
Another issue is the perceived ostracisation of Northern MPs from Sunak’s Cabinet.
The departure of Simon Clarke and Jake Berry left Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Sunak himself as the only English Cabinet members with seats north of Birmingham’s M6 toll road. And as one Red Waller caustically observed: ‘Rishi’s seat is Richmond. And Richmond in Yorkshire is even posher than Richmond in London.’
Added to this disillusionment is the way Sunak has managed – or mismanaged – the allocation of the precious Levelling Up Fund. Dozens of Northern Tory backbenchers were furious as it became apparent their promised allocation of cash wouldn’t be forthcoming.
‘The whole point of the Levelling Up money was it was supposed to see resources going to Northern seats that had been taken for granted or neglected by Labour,’ one MP expressed bitterly. ‘But under Rishi, it’s been thrown around all over the country. Remember when he boasted about funnelling money to deprived areas such as Tunbridge Wells? Well that’s precisely what he’s been doing.’
Even when resources are allocated, Northern Tory MPs complain that a political gift is being handed to Labour. ‘We’re not being given any political cover,’ one told me. ‘Outside of the Levelling Up Fund, the main way Rishi’s looking to get any money to the North is via the regional mayors. But with the exception of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley, they’re all Labour.
‘So Steve Rotherham [Liverpool City] and Andy Burnham [Greater Manchester] are just going, ‘Thanks very much’, spending it in areas that helps them politically, and taking all the credit for it.’
But the biggest issue Red Wall MPs have with Rishi Sunak is Rishi Sunak himself. They are increasingly coming to the view his political instincts are out of alignment with the people they have been elected to represent. As one said: ‘Rishi’s decent and he’s competent. But he’s not connecting with my voters. They don’t identify with him and I’m not sure he identifies with them.’
This disconnect is being exacerbated by the political strategy Sunak and his team are trying to implement.
Many Red Wall MPs are looking for bold, aggressive ‘wedge issues’ that they can use to take the fight to Labour. But inside Downing Street the view is they need to cool down the political temperature, avoid controversy and build up a reputation for quiet competence.
‘What we’re being told by No 10 is, ‘Don’t commit news’,’ one Minister told me, referring to the PM’s office ‘grid’ spreadsheet used to schedule major policy announcements.
‘Previously, the message was, ‘Don’t cut across what’s going on the grid’. Now it’s, ‘For the next couple of weeks, we don’t really want anything on the grid at all.’ ‘
Which would be fine if Downing Street stuck to its own advice. But last week, Red Wall MPs were aghast over a succession of own-goals that antagonised their constituents.
First there was the abortive attempt to secure a new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland. ‘My voters couldn’t care less about Northern Irish issues,’ one MP complained. ‘But they do care about Brexit. And when they see us wrangling over this, all they think is, ‘Hang on a second, I thought you told us you’d got Brexit done.’ ‘
The belief Sunak has abandoned any hope of saving the Red Wall seats secured by Boris Johnson’s dramatic 2019 foray into Labour’s heartlands is based on a number of factors
Then there was the revelation Sunak had, in effect, authorised an amnesty for 20,000 asylum-seekers whose applications had yet to be processed.
‘Where’s the politics in this?’ one Red Waller raged. ‘We promised people we would get to grips with the asylum backlog. Not throw open the doors and let everyone in.’
Sunak’s allies counter by claiming that under Boris Johnson too much emphasis was placed on appealing to Red Wall voters and not enough on building a politically sustainable national coalition.
‘Boris was supposed to be pursuing a Red Wall strategy,’ one told me, ‘but look what happened in the by-elections. He ended up losing Wakefield on a 13-point swing, and Tiverton on a 30-point swing.’
And there is some truth in that. The big strategic dilemma for the Tories is how to find a message that will simultaneously appeal to their Red Wall and Blue Wall supporters.
But there may also be a more simple explanation for why Sunak is withdrawing from the Red Wall. That deep down he knows he isn’t capable of defending it and recognises that his political agenda and instincts really aren’t in sync with those of Red Wall voters.
Maybe Sunak sees what everyone else can see. That he genuinely can’t identify with life on the other side of the Red Wall – any more than those inside Red Wall Britain can identify with him. In which case, perhaps the Prime Minister should just be true to himself.
He should pursue his technocratic, managerial, safety-first, one-nation strategy. Avoid ‘wedge-issues’ and culture wars and initiatives that inflame political passions. And plod along, studying his spreadsheets, forming his taskforces and trusting that, when the time comes, the voters of the Thames Estuary will show thanks for their new champion.
No 10 will deny it. But the reality is that Rishi Sunak is walking away from the Red Wall. Or, rather, he’s jumping before he’s pushed.
No Minister for the whole of the North? What signal does that send?
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