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President Biden on Wednesday night centered one of his final closing arguments for the midterms on the dangers to democracy, election deniers, and political violence after the attack on Paul Pelosi.

The topics have been a focal point for the White House and the Democrats in the build-up to the vote Biden has insisted it will be the ‘most consequential’ in history.

But as the months since the Uvalde school shooting and the overturning of Roe – voters have zeroed in on one concern when going to the ballot: The economy.

Factors such as abortion, gun rights, election reform, climate and social issues – that the Democrats put at the top of their message – have dwindled in priority while Americans have faced rising prices from the gas pump to the grocery store.

Republicans have focused their message on the economy and crime in their midterm messaging, and early indications show it will pay off with at least a majority in the House.

Democrats have slowly come around and some in their own party such as California Governor Gavin Newsom admit they have been ‘crushed’ by the GOP in their messaging.

With five days to go until millions of Americans head to the ballot box – if they haven’t already voted- DailyMail.com has broken down the top issues voters are considering when they decide who to back, and how the Democrats have been behind on what issues matter most.

Economic issues vs. social issues – as inflation persists, matters like gun rights are not top of mind 

The economy and inflation, rather than social issues, are top of mind for most voters this year by nearly every measure of polling. Voters tend to trust Republicans more on economic issues and Democrats more on social issues. 

A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday showed that inflation was the number one issue for 36 percent of respondents, while abortion was the next most-urgent, the top priority for 10 percent of respondents. 

The poll showed that Republicans (57 percent) and Independents (41 percent) ranked inflation as their number one issue, while Democrats say it is abortion (19 percent) followed by inflation (15 percent) and gun violence (14 percent).

Asked in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll what types of issues are ‘most important,’ 44 percent of voters said ‘economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living’ while 40 percent said ‘societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy.’

Just over the summer in June gun policy ranked as high with voters as did the economy, according to Gallup polling, with 55 percent of voters saying each matter was ‘extremely important.’ That was shortly after the May 24 Uvalde school shooting. 

But four months later, after Congress passed a gun reform bill that advocates say did not nearly go far enough, the matter has slipped 17 percentage points where only 38 percent say it’s extremely important. 

Vulnerable moderate Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, Mich., said her party has done a ‘poor job’ messaging on economic issues. 

‘The truth is, Democrats have done a poor job of communicating our approach to the economy,’ she told the New York Times in a report published Tuesday. ‘I have no idea if I’m going to win my election – it’s going to be a nail-biter. But if you can’t speak directly to people’s pocketbook and talk about our vision for the economy, you’re just having half a conversation.’

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Presidential referendum – Biden’s unpopularity is weighing on Democrats

Midterm elections are always a referendum on the party in power, specifically in the presidency but this time Democrats control the White House and Congress. 

Democrats will have to defy historical headwinds that typically show the party not in power performing well in midterm elections.  

Biden’s polling average is teetering at 42.4 percent, meaning he will not be able to offer any major boost in vulnerable states.

Voters under 40 have the most distaste for the White House’s current occupant. Only 10 percent of voters under 40 ‘strongly approve’ of Biden’s job in office, while 25 percent strongly disapprove, according to an NBC poll.

The younger voting bloc remained largely apathetic – 26 percent said they ‘somewhat approve’ while 22 percent said they neither approve nor disapprove. 

Biden’s favor has fallen off with white suburban women, a key voting bloc courted by both parties that makes up 20 percent of the electorate. 

A new Wall Street Journal poll shows white suburban women now favor Republicans over Democrats by 15 points, falling off for Democrats by 27 points since WSJ’s August poll. 

Asked about a potential 2024 matchup between Biden and Trump, 41 percent of white suburban women said they would vote for Trump while 52 percent said Trump. In August, the figures had been 55 percent for Biden and 39 percent for Trump.  

Economy – only 19 percent believe it’s headed in the right direction

 Thirty-four percent of voters say that rising prices are what most motivated them to get out and vote, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll. In  a sign that spells trouble for Democrats, only 19 percent say the economy is headed in the right direction, down 11 percent from August. 

Overall inflation remains stubbornly high with the consumer price index clocking in at 8.2 percent in September, despite the Fed hiking up interest rates to tamp down prices. Another jumbo rate hike came out of the Fed meeting Wednesday, with interest rates now at 3.75-4 percent.

Meanwhile, 71 percent of voters lack confidence in President Biden’s economic leadership, according to the WSJ poll. Only 27 percent say his policies have had a positive impact on the economy and 54 percent say they have had a negative impact. 

At the same time the number who said they thought congressional Republicans were best suited to get inflation under control was nearly double those who said Democrats 48 percent to 27 percent. 

Asked in an ABC News/Ipsos poll from this week what the most important issue is, 50 percent of respondents said the economy and inflation and 16 percent said abortion. 

For Democratic registered voters, about the same amount (28 percent) say either the economy or inflation are their top issue as those who say abortion is the top priority (29 percent). 

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Democrats, for their part, point to their deliverables in Congress as ways to reduce costs – namely through the Inflation Reduction Act. The bill aims to fight price rises by capping prescription drug costs for Medicare and Medicaid, offering renewable energy tax credits and cracking down on wealthy tax cheats. 

Crime – second-most important issue for Republicans, fifth most important for Democrats

Republicans are hitting the crime wave hard as a key election issue. Crime data from various sources shows the murder rate rose significantly in 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic and amid nation-wide police brutality riots and has remained nearly 40% higher than in 2019. 

Republicans have been trying to tie Democrats to the ‘defund the police’ movement and policies implemented in liberal cities like bail reform. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from last week found crime and corruption were a top issue for about 1 in 10 voters, lagging far behind the economy but ahead of issues like abortion and climate change. Polling also showed voters trust Republicans to handle crime issues more than Democrats.  

The matter seems to be hitting home in some races – New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has seen her lead over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin shrink to just single digits, one year after New York City elected a tough-on-crime former Republican as its mayor. 

In new Gallup polling, crime was second-most important, in between the economy and abortion. The Gallup poll found 71 percent of voters said crime was ‘extremely’ or ‘very important to their vote, compared to 85 percent for the economy and 66 percent for abortion. The poll came after another Gallup survey showed more than half (56 percent) of Americans said crime was going up in their area, the highest mark Gallup ever measured in the five decades it has been asking the question. 

Political fervor on the matter is divided politically – for Republicans, crime tied with immigration as their second-most important issue. For Independents, it ranked third behind the economy and abortion. For Democrats, it ranked fifth. 

Border – good for GOP turnout but not a number one issue for swing voters

Immigration is the third prong of Republicans’ pitch to voters, after fiscal year 2022 saw two million unlawful border encounters and GOP governors made a show of bussing migrants from border towns to blue cities. 

Border matters may rev up GOP voter turnout – with 55 percent ranking it ‘extremely important’ it ties with crime for second-most important issue for Republicans according to Gallup  – but it does less to attract Independent and Democratic voters. Only 32 percent of Independents rank it ‘extremely important’ and 22 percent of Democrats. 

Abortion – majority disagree with SCOTUS decision but the matter now sways fewer votes 

While a majority of Americans oppose the high court’s undoing of Roe v. Wade (about 3 in 5 Americans), the matter is not top of mind for most voters. 

Abortion is a number one issue for 17 percent of Wall Street Journal respondents. A New York Times/Sienna College poll from mid-October found abortion was a top issue for just 5 percent of respondents – tied with those who said the southern border is their top issue. 

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Those who say abortion is a top issue for them say they trust Democrats on the issue more than Republicans.  

Fifty-two percent of voters say they would rather vote for a candidate who believes abortion should be always legal (29 percent) or mostly legal (23 percent) while 31 percent say they would rather vote for a candidate who believes the procedure should be mostly illegal (24 percent) or always illegal (7 percent.)

In June the Supreme Court sent shockwaves across the country when it overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that legalized abortions at least up until around 20 weeks. Thirteen states were ready with so-called ‘trigger laws’ that were ready to ban abortion immediately upon Roe’s undoing, but abortions only fell 6 percent in the months after, according to the Society for Family Planning. 

Democrats have clung to the issue, counting it as a key matter that plays in their favor – an Associated Press estimate found that Democrats had spent a whopping $124 million on TV abortion ads from January to September 2022. A Washington Post analysis found they’ve poured in another $103 million since Labor Day, far outpacing their spending on any other issue. 

Republicans, meanwhile, have largely tried to steer clear of the issue and keep focus on the economy and crime. They have spent only $4 million on abortion ads, compared with ads about taxes ($89 million) and crime ($49 million)—and Joe Biden ($63 million). 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll from late September found that abortion ranked fifth in importance of top matters to poll respondents – behind the economy, education, inflation and crime and just ahead of immigration. 

And while Democrats had been hopeful the abortion matter would boost their standing with white suburban women, it has fallen to third on their list of priorities – behind the economy (34 percent), threats to democracy (28 percent) and abortion (16 percent).  

But in Michigan, where abortion is specifically on the ballot as a voter referendum, the matter seems to be turning out votes in Democrats’ favor.  Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leading GOP candidate Tudor Dixon by about eight points, according to Fox News polling. Michigan women are out-registering men by a margin of 8.1 percent and Democrats are out-registering Republicans by 18 percent, according to data analysis conducted by TargetSmart. 

Voting rights and threats to democracy – over a third of electorate does not care who a candidate thinks won 2020 presidential election  

Voting rights and threats to democracy, where Democrats seem to have the edge, rank low on the list of voter priorities, according to the NY Times/Siena poll. Forty-three percent of respondents would rather vote for a candidate who believes Joe Biden won the election, 19 percent said one that believes Donald Trump won, but 35 percent said they don’t care who the candidate believes won in 2020. 

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