Nicola Bulley’s family find police theory that she slipped into the river ‘hard to contemplate’

Nicola Bulley’s family have warned there is ‘no evidence whatsoever’ that suggests the missing mother fell in the river, despite police confirming it’s their lead theory.

Police expressed concerns that the missing mother-of-two may have fallen in the icy cold water on River Wyre while trying to retrieve her dog Willow’s tennis ball.  Specialist search crews have not recovered the ball – or anything of note – at this stage.

If Ms Bulley did fall into the water, she may have been weighed down by the heavy clothing she was wearing on the day she vanished.

But her sister Louise Cunningham urged the public to keep an open mind in a social media post this evening.

‘Off the back of the latest Police media update, please can I add there is no evidence whatsoever that she has gone into the river, it’s just a theory. 

‘Everyone needs to keep an open mind as not all CCTV and leads have been investigated fully, the police confirmed the case is far from over.’

While police are still investigating how or why she may have ended up in the water, their lead theory is that for some as yet unknown reason, she did enter the river on the morning of Friday January 27, shortly after dropping her daughters, aged six and nine, at school.

Since then Ms Bulley’s distraught family have been clinging to hope she may still be alive. 

In the early stages of the investigation they questioned whether it was possible she had been taken, and reportedly even considered if she’d staged her own disappearance.

And when Willow was found by another dog-walker – just 13 minutes after Ms Bulley vanished – she was ‘bone dry’, leading police to determine she likely had not been in the water, despite being alone, out of her harness and ‘worked up’. 

Last night Ms Bulley’s family were finding the candid police assessment ‘hard to contemplate’ but continued to hold onto hope, the Mail was told.

Ms Bulley’s desperate parents, sister, partner and daughters have all been living a nightmare over the past week. 

Partner Paul Ansell, a 44-year-old company director, shares the bewilderment of millions who had followed the agonising mystery since his partner of 12 years disappeared.

At the scene yesterday he said: ‘My whole focus is my two girls, just staying as strong as I can for them. I’m scared that if I put focus into anything else it’s going to take my focus off that. 

‘I just can’t believe we’re a week on, and it seems like we’re no further on. It just seems absolutely impossible. Like a dream. I cannot get my head around it. Right now it’s like she’s vanished into thin air, it’s insane.’

Friend Luke Sumner acknowledged the evidence thus far does appear to point to the river.

‘It’s very, very wet, the banks can be quite steep in certain areas, and the current can be quite fast,’ he told Radio 4’s PM. But he said family and friends continued ‘clinging to any hope there is’.

But while police have publicly said they believe Ms Bulley likely fell into the river, they still haven’t entirely ruled out other options.

Substantial CCTV in the region has all but ruled out she exited the park from most of the surrounding gates. 

But there is one area they’re yet to investigate. 

Lancashire Police Superintendent Sally Riley told the Lancashire Post: ‘Several exits of the riverside area have CCTV covering them or exits are locked and therefore couldn’t have been passed through by Nicola. 

‘There’s only a very small area onto Garstang Lane toward the A5/A6 which is not covered by CCTV and that’s why we’re appealing today for dashcam footage or for people who may have been walking on Garstang Lane or driving in the area to come forward if they can.’ 

The mother-of-two, 45, was last seen wearing an ankle-length black quilted gilet jacket, a black Engelbert Strauss waist-length coat, tight-fitting jeans and green wellies.

She had a pale blue Fitbit strapped to her wrist as she took her Spaniel, Willow, on a brisk walk through River Wyre – a route she took often after dropping her two daughters to school nearby.

Speaking to MailOnline following a press conference in the village of St Michael’s on Wyre, Supt Riley said officers were looking at all scenarios.

But she admitted it was ‘possible’ that Ms Bulley fell into the River Wyre while attempting to retrieve a tennis ball for her dog close to the water’s edge.

Ms Bulley posted numerous images of herself exercising along the same stretch of the River Wyre to where she was last seen last on the running tracking app Strava.

In a couple of the photos Willow is seen playing with the ball.

Superintendent Riley said: ‘I’m not aware of a dog ball being retrieved but it’s possible that a ball could have rolled down the steep bank close to the edge of the water and Ms Bulley was bending down to pick it up.

‘What she was wearing could also be a factor.

‘I don’t wish to speculate but the facts are that she was wearing a quilted, ankle-length gilet, which is a big coat, and underneath that there was another coat and then under that coat more clothing.

‘She was also wearing ankle-length wellingtons. One would assume they fill with water when someone enters a river so all of that clothing is heavy, particularly on someone who is of slight build and only 5 foot three.’

And outdoor swimming expert Camilla Golledge told MailOnline the shock of the cold water could also limit a person’s ability to swim to safety. 

The Kent-based instructor said: ‘People are experiencing cold water shock at the moment because the water is so cold… which means that your natural response if to take a big gasp of air, meaning water will fill your lungs.

‘Everybody would experience it unless you are an experienced outdoor swimmer.

‘It has less to do with the clothes. They certainly won’t help.’

She said Ms Bulley may have been unable to call for help, especially because her clothes and wellies would have weighed her down.

‘Most people suffering from cold water shock or drowning in open water are people that did not mean to be there,’ Ms Golledge said.

‘What you need to do is coach your breathing, get in slowly, rather than falling or jumping in.

‘Even I as an experienced open water swimmer, I get in slowly and I have to coach my breathing. My body does feel shock with that unnatural breath in.’

Supt Riley said there were no reports of anyone in distress, no shouting or splashing, and no footprints were found on the bank. 

Social media sleuths sharing theories about Ms Bulley’s disappearance online have been warned they’re only adding to the hurt and pain felt by her family.

A friend said: ‘They perhaps need to find a better way of occupying their time… They could do something more useful and proactive with their time… help search, share posters, but allegations are cruel and unhelpful.”

Armchair detectives and well-meaning strangers have made wild allegations in the days since Ms Bulley vanished. 

Some people claiming to be psychics say they had visions of the mother-of-two in the river, while others insist she was ‘taken’ – despite repeated police statements saying there does not appear to be third party involvement.

Speaking to The Mirror, a friend said she believes these outlandish hypotheses are the work of ‘attention seekers’, describing the comments as ‘cruel, unhelpful’ and hurtful to Ms Bulley’s loved ones.

The missing mortgage adviser, 45, sent a text to a friend organising a playdate for their children minutes before she vanished, it emerged yesterday. 

A resident of St Michael’s on Wyre told the Mirror: ‘She booked a playdate, 8.57, she sent a text message to a friend whose mortgage she had just recently signed off on to arrange for the girls to go for tea this week.’

The local, who did not want to be named, said this was more evidence that she had no intention of voluntarily disappearing, adding: ‘You wouldn’t have done that if you were going to get up and go missing.’

Specialist police officers have scanned the section of the River Wyre close to the bench where her mobile phone was recovered later in the morning last Friday.

The spot is 300metres away from a weir, which divides the river between tidal and non-tidal.

Nothing of note had been found, the officer said, but she added that a ‘large mass’ could go over that weir downstream, which would present ‘more complexities and challenges’ as it flows out to the coast nine miles away at Fleetwood.

Officers have scoured the riverbed with modern underwater drones, which are similar to mini submarines equipped with cameras operated by someone on land or on a boat.

Police diving teams will continue to comb the riverbed of the Wyre in the area close to the bench over the weekend, while the Coastguard and the RNLI will continue checking the tidal stretch out to Fleetwood and Morecombe Bay.

Author and former soldier Chris Ryan, who goes by ChrisRyanMM and was a member of the British Army’s elite SAS squadron for a decade, also highlighted the struggles Nicola would have faced if she did fall in the water.

‘It is an awful case and my heart goes out to her and her family. During my SAS service I was part of three missions involving river falls and sadly, people can underestimate the power of water along with the dangers of an unstable riverbank,’ he told MailOnline.

‘We all take these walks and on any given day they go by without incident. Collapses aren’t always predictable, so the surprise will often dictate the way in which a person enters the water, for example head first. Then consider several other factors like shock, undercurrents, debris and clothing.

‘A grown adult can be swept away in as little as 17 inches of fast flowing water. Then consider a swollen and fast flowing river with a lot of loose debris. If a person falls into a river, their clothes will absorb the water and that extra weight would make swimming or staying above the surface very difficult.’

He added: ‘I really hope this young woman is found soon, I walk my dog along a river so know too well that at first glance it’s a lovely place to be.’

Earlier, Supt Riley said detectives are ‘as sure as we can be’ that the missing mother-of-two didn’t leave the riverbank in St Michael’s on Wyre and ‘this is not suspicious but a tragic case of a missing person’.

Supt Riley said they are trying to piece together ‘a ten minute window where we can’t account for her movements’ – from when she was last seen at 9.10am last Friday and when her phone was put down on a bench at 9.20am.

She said: ‘We believe she remained in the riverside area. Our working hypothesis is that she has sadly fallen into the river for some reason. There is no evidence whatsoever that there is anything suspicious about her disappearance or any third-party involvement in her going missing’, adding ‘speculation otherwise is distressing for Nicky’s family.

Police also revealed today: 

• Detectives believe that Nicola has fallen in the river in a ten minute window between her last sighting and her phone being put down on a bench;
• Officers have said they have checked all available CCTV and that Nicola did not leave the area. They are also searching a 10-mile stretch of water to the Irish Sea;
• Lancashire Police warned people to be careful on or around the river in the dark, especially anyone trying to help in the search at night;
• A sealed off car park near the area where Ms Bulley was last seen is unrelated to the investigation

Ms Bulley’s heartbroken boyfriend spoke for the first time today, saying: ‘It’s like she’s vanished into thin air – it’s insane’. 

Paul Ansell, an engineer, said he is focusing on staying strong for their two daughters, who have been asking what has happened to their mother a week on after she disappeared on a dog walk. 

 Speaking near the scene where Ms Bulley was last seen by the River Wyre in Lancashire, he told broadcasters: ‘My whole focus is my two girls, just staying as strong as I can for them.

‘I’m scared that if I put focus into anything else it’s going to take my focus off that. Just hoping to goodness that anything comes out from the interview yesterday no matter how tiny.’ 

After thanking the local community for its ‘incredible’ support, he added: ‘I just can’t believe we’re a week on and it seems like we’re no further on. 

‘It just seems absolutely impossible. Like a dream. I cannot get my head around it. Right now it’s like she’s vanished into thin air, it’s insane.’ 

Mr Ansell said he ‘cannot get his head around’ her disappearance. He said: ‘Every single scenario comes to a brick wall. Every single one of them.

‘All we are doing is sitting there going round and round and round through each scenario.’

He added he was focusing on looking after their two daughters and ‘didn’t want to think’ about how he was coping.

Yesterday, police issued a public appeal for a woman seen in CCTV wearing a red coat on the River Wyre around the time Ms Bulley vanished last Friday morning. 

MailOnline earlier revealed the 67-year-old woman, Christine Bowman, told police she did not see Ms Bulley during her walk with her own dog Snowflake.

Ms Bowman said she was baffled by the appeal to track her down because she had already spoken to officers on the day Ms Bulley disappeared – and she ‘doesn’t know anything’.

The local resident – who police hoped could provide key pieces of information in the search for Ms Bulley – does not travel as far as the bench where the missing mother’s phone and dog were found. 

‘The security camera footage that she was caught on was taken from the caravan park next to the towpath.

‘That’s as far as she goes, she doesn’t walk her dog further along the footpath than that point.’

It’s a devastating blow for Ms Bulley’s family, who have been waiting with bated breath for updates in the investigation.

In the appeal to track down the woman yesterday, a spokesman for Lancashire Police said: ‘She is described as wearing a red and white coat with a fur hood, light-coloured trousers and a light bobble hat.

‘She was walking a small, white dog. The woman was seen on CCTV at around 8.48am on Allotment Lane, close to where Nicola was last seen and was also seen near to the gate at the end of Allotment Lane.’

However a friend said: ‘Their paths did not cross, she has no information on where Nicola could be sadly.’ 

As the investigation extends into an eighth day, a source from St Michael’s Angling Association said the stretch of river where Ms Bulley vanished is notorious and ‘very dangerous’, with a depth of about 15ft. 

‘The combination of the depth and how cold it is at this time of year makes it very dangerous,’ he told The Times.

‘I certainly would not want to fall in there and I’m a very strong swimmer.’ Specialist police divers have been painstakingly searching the riverbed for clues.