Next UK Prime Minister odds: Who will be new Tory leader?

Liz Truss‘s bombshell resignation today sets up a lighting fast election for a new Tory leader with no obvious unity candidate to take over.

The party is keen to avoid a re-run of the summer’s bitter and protracted 55-day race in which she beat Rishi Sunak. 

That race saw both sides engage in bitter blue-on-blue infighting, mainly over the economy, that did not help the party in the polls. 

Ms Truss spent more than an hour in talks with 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, Tory chairman Jake Berry and deputy PM Therese Coffey this morning.

Afterwards, announcing her resignation after just 44 days she revealed they had agreed a truncated election campaign lasting a week.

Sir Graham told reporters that he wants to run it, including possibly a vote of 160,000 party members, before the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt makes a fiscal statement on spending on October 31. 

Asked if the party faithful will be included in the process, he told reporters: ‘Well, that is the expectation.

‘So the reason I’ve spoken to the party chairman and I discussed the parameters of a process is to look at how we can make the whole thing happen, including the party being consulted, by Friday next week.’

Sir Graham added: ‘I think we’re deeply conscious of the imperative in the national interest of resolving this clearly and quickly.’

They appear to be pinning their hopes on a single unity candidate can be identified who can effectively step in and avoid any further unpleasantness, with the party hemorrhaging support in the polls.

However, that unity candidate has yet to emerge, with several big names suggesting it should be them. 

Those in the frame include Mr Sunak, the former chancellor, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

The the main obstacle remains the lack of consensus on who should take over and what the process should be, with little appetite for a drawn-out contest. There are signs leadership battle lines are already being drawn, with former minister Crispin Blunt openly calling for Jeremy Hunt to get the keys to No10.

Nadine Dorries warned the only person who could return in a ‘coronation’ is Boris Johnson. Other MPs want Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt to take over.

One senior MP, not previously a fan of the ex-PM, told MailOnline Sir Graham has to come up with a ‘plan’. ‘Bring back Boris or get Jeremy Hunt in. If you get Boris back in you just hit the reset button,’ they said.

One idea being pushed by influential Tories is that MPs vote on a successor, but there is a very high threshold of nominations to get on the ballot.

The 1922 committee could ask candidates to agree that they will step aside if they are not in pole position when the field is whittled down to a final two. That would avoid the need for a run-off vote of the entire party membership.

A source said of the blueprint: ‘That has been put to someone very senior in the party, very, very senior.’

Liz Truss has said she will stay on as Prime Minister until a successor is chosen via a leadership election to be held within the next week.

Speaking in Downing Street, she said: ‘This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.

‘We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week.

‘This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plan and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security.

‘I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen.

‘Thank you.’

Here we look at who could take over power: 

RISHI SUNAK 

The former Chancellor, 42, was the runner-up in this summer’s Tory leadership race.

He and Ms Truss went head-to-head as the final pairing in the contest to replace Boris Johnson in No10.

They engaged in bitter exchanges over their economic agendas during a lengthy series of hustings events across the UK.

Now that Ms Truss has abandoned almost all her leadership pledges on tax cuts – and is adopting much of the approach pursued by Mr Sunak when he was Chancellor – some MPs will be wondering why they don’t just put him in charge instead.

A number of his supporters are also likely to take a ‘told you so’ attitude to the Government’s current travails – after Mr Sunak’s warned this summer of market turmoil if Ms Truss followed through with her unfunded tax cuts.

Mr Sunak won the support of 137 MPs in the initial stages of the Tory leadership contest – 24 more than Ms Truss – and retains a strong backing within the parliamentary party.

After overseeing the Government’s economic response to the Covid crisis, he also has experience of political leadership in turbulent times.

MPs might be wary of installing a leader who was rejected by the Tory membership little more than a month ago.

There is also lingering resentment at Mr Sunak for his resignation as Chancellor in July, which many of Mr Johnson’s loyalists still blame for the former PM’s ousting from No10.

But a new poll today suggests the grassroots of the party may be more accepting than previously thought. 

The poll of Conservative members by JL Partners for the Daily Telegraph found that 60 per cent of them would now back Mr Sunak for party leader, once undecided and non-voting members are excluded. More than four-in-10 (43 per cent) would support him outright, to Truss’s (28 per cent)

JEREMY HUNT 

The 55-year-old was a shock appointment as the new Chancellor on Friday following Ms Truss’s sacking of her ally Kwasi Kwarteng.

He is now being referred to among some Tory MPs as the ‘de facto PM’ after he tore up what remained of Ms Truss’s mini-Budget plans and outlined a completely new economic agenda.

Mr Hunt is being talked up as a potential ‘unity’ candidate behind which the competing wings of the Conservative Party could rally behind, amid the current economic crisis.

He is an experienced Cabinet minister and is the longest-serving Health Secretary in British political history following his spell in charge of the NHS between 2012 and 2018.

Mr Hunt has also previously served as Foreign Secretary and Culture Secretary and would be seen as a safe pair of hands.

There have been suggestions he could enter No10 as a ‘caretaker’ PM to steady the ship before another leader is elected.

But Mr Hunt himself is distancing himself from talk about his leadership chances and has ruled out a tilt at the top job as he called on MPs to give Ms Truss ‘a chance’.

‘I rule it out, Mrs Hunt rules it out, three Hunt children rule it out,’ he told Sky News.

During this summer’s Tory leadership contest, Mr Hunt was knocked out in the first round of voting by MPs when he attracted the support of just 18 colleagues.

It is this recent demonstration of a paucity of support for Mr Hunt – who went on to support Mr Sunak against Ms Truss – among Conservative MPs that would count against him if he changed his mind.

He was previously the runner-up to Mr Johnson in the 2019 Tory leadership election, in which he was roundly rejected by Tory members.

Following his elimination from this summer’s contest, Mr Hunt had appeared to admit his hopes of ever seizing the Tory crown were over.

‘It’s become obvious to me you only get one big shot at this, and I had mine in 2019.’ he said at the time. 

PENNY MORDAUNT 

The Leader of the House of Commons, 49, came close to reaching the final round of this summer’s Tory leadership contest.

She finished third behind Ms Truss and Mr Sunak when she secured the support of 105 MPs.

The Royal Navy reservist has since been drafted back into the Cabinet, where she previously served as Defence Secretary under Theresa May’s premiership.

But, this summer’s leadership contest saw questions raised about Ms Mordaunt’s ministerial record.

There was stinging criticism of Ms Mordaunt’s work ethic as she was accused of going missing from her ministerial duties by rival camps.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who was Ms Mordaunt’s former boss, moaned about she had ‘not been available’ at various times as a trade minister and left others to ‘pick up the pieces’.

It was claimed Ms Mordaunt had instead spent her time focusing on preparations for her leadership campaign.

She also had to fight hard during the Tory leadership contest against criticism of her stance on trans issues, including her past claim that ‘trans women are women’.

Ms Mordaunt blasted critics trying to depict her as ‘woke’.

One suggestion at Westminster is the possibility of Ms Mordaunt teaming up with Mr Sunak as part of a joint ticket to replace Ms Truss.

But plotters are said to be undecided on who would be PM out of the pair, if they were to front a ‘government of all the talents’ between them.

Last night it was reported that Ms Mordaunt’s allies reached out to Mr Sunak to be her chancellor, but were rebuffed.

BEN WALLACE

The 52-year-old is popular with Tory members following the Defence Secretary’s efforts in leading Britain’s military response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

He is also being spoken of as a ‘unity’ candidate to bring the party back together, should Ms Truss depart.

The former Army officer has routinely topped the polls among the Conservatives grassroots.

But he did not enter this summer’s leadership contest after ‘careful consideration’ and later backed Ms Truss.

At this month’s Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Mr Wallace admitted he was ‘conflicted’ about a possible leadership bid in the future. 

He told a fringe event: ‘At this time of life, the idea was no. I mean do I rule it out? No. I don’t rule it out, but will I be here in a few years’ time? I don’t know either.’

Mr Wallace might be popular with Tory members, but would be less well-known to members of the public as he has only been a Cabinet minister since 2019.

Tory MPs might also fear he is untested as he has never held one of the ‘great offices of state’ as Mrs May, Mr Johnson and Ms Truss all had before they entered No10. 

Mr Wallace has also been touted as a possible successor to NATO general secretary Jens Stoltenberg.

Last night be repeated his desire to stay at defence, telling the Times: ‘I want to be the Secretary of State for Defence until I finish. I love the job I do and we have more to do. I want the Prime Minister to be the Prime Minister and I want to do this job.’

He added: ‘I say to the colleagues who think our role is to feed the instability within the party, by proposing other people as leaders no matter who they are, (you) are doing a disservice.

‘The markets are responding at the moment in the UK to unsurety about the Government. The best way to give those markets some confidence is for people to stop playing political parlour games.’ 

BORIS JOHNSON 

Could Boris Johnson make an unlikely come-back just three months after resigning in disgrace?

He was eventually pulled from office after a massive ministerial rebellion in July, after Partygate, Wallpapergate and a myriad of other scandals including the removal of whip Chris Pincher pulled down his premiership.

But he still has his supporters in the parliamentary party and wider conservative ranks – though polls show a majority of voters believe he was right to quit.

One MPO told MailOnline he could be the best solution to the problems the party faces.

‘If you can find a unity candidate you are a better man than I,’ the former minister said. ‘There isn’t one. It is a funny kind of strength.

‘The membership didn’t want to get ride of Boris… They would welcome it. He is the only one with a personality that can appeal to anybody.’

They added: ‘He is like Heineken. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility.’

However defence minister James Heappey threw shade at the ex-PM today.  The  Armed Forces Minister told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there was no alternative unity candidate and defended Ms Truss, saying that at least she had apologised quicker than Boris Johnson did when he was prime minister.

Last night Tory plotters were told to reinstate Boris Johnson to No 10 or face a general election ‘within weeks’.

Nadine Dorries, a staunch ally of the former prime minister and a backer of Liz Truss, made a fresh appeal to doubting Conservative MPs to stand behind the current leader.

In recent weeks she has called for Miss Truss to hold a fresh election if she was insistent on wavering over her predecessor’s policies.

But the former Culture Secretary said ‘only one MP has a mandate’ from both the Tory party and the British public – Mr Johnson.

SUELLA BRAVERMAN

Suella Braverman was only in the Home Office for a matter of weeks but she spent most of it seemingly positioning herself for a tilt at another job – that of prime minister. 

The hardline Brexiteer was handed the top job as an acknowledgement of her popularity with the right of the party in the summer leadership contest, and for switching to Team Truss when she was knocked out. 

But during her tenure she made a series of outbursts that put her at odds with Liz Truss, raising suggestions she was positioning herself for the next leadership race. 

In a letter, Ms Braverman said she was resigning for breaching processes by sending an email from her personal account about a forthcoming ministerial statement on immigration.

But in another hammer blow for the PM’s chances of clinging on, she also complained that the government was breaking promises. She swiped that when people made ‘mistakes’ – something Ms Truss has admitted – the right thing to do was quit.

They had a huge bust-up over visas policy last night. The 42-year-old mother-of two hit the headlines just yesterday with a rant against the ‘tofu-eating wokerati’ for effectively preventing police from arresting eco-zealots who have caused mayhem and misery during weeks of protest.

She hit out at MPs who voted against tough new measures to strengthen police powers to deal with activists more quickly.

Addressing the Commons as MPs debated the Public Order Bill, Mrs Braverman said: ‘I’m afraid it’s the Labour Party, it’s the Lib Dems, it’s the coalition of chaos, it’s the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati – dare I say, the anti-growth coalition – that we have to thank for the disruption we are seeing on our roads today.’

Her comments came as police arrested two Just Stop Oil protesters who spent 36 hours suspended from the QEII bridge, closing a major transport link between Kent and Essex due to safety fears.

At the Conservative Party conference a fortnight ago she also attacked the PM for U-turning over plans to axe the 45p top rate of income tax.

She launched a swipe as the PM tried to regain her balance, branding the U-turn on axing the 45p tax rate ‘disappointing’ and accusing rebels of a ‘coup’.

She was also blamed recently for jeopardizing a free trade deal with India by accusing its people of being the worst at overstaying visas in the UK.